Trump Saved Jobs at Carrier, but More Midwest Jobs Are in Jeopardy – New York Times

Indeed, Rexnord, the ball bearing factory in Indianapolis where Mr. Jones went to work straight out of high school nearly 40 years ago, said in October it would be moving to Mexico. It is just a mile from the Carrier plant.

The mayor of Indianapolis, Joe Hogsett, and Senator Joe Donnelly, both Democrats, tried to exert Trumplike pressure to force Rexnord to rethink its plans, but so far the company has not shown any sign it will change course.

"On a personal level at Carrier, it is huge," said Jerry N. Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. "But by itself, the disappearance or retention of 1,000 jobs is a small slice of the total economy in Indiana."

"I think there will be continued downward pressure on employment in factories because of trends toward automation especially and moving to lower-cost areas for production," he added.

Carrier, in its official statement on the deal on Wednesday, said that it thought the agreement it negotiated with Mr. Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence "benefits our workers, the state of Indiana and our company." But it said that incentives provided by Indiana, where Mr. Pence is governor, "were an important consideration." It added that "the forces of globalization will continue to require solutions for the long-term competitiveness of the U.S. and American workers."

Those 1,000 Carrier jobs saved represent just 0.2 percent of total manufacturing employment in the state. And despite a rebound since the aftermath of the Great Recession, at just over half a million positions, factory employment in Indiana this year is still down by more than 20 percent since 2000.

The good news is that Indiana has been doing well economically, with an unemployment rate below the national average and steady gains in employment like food service, retail and logistics.

But those service jobs pay well below the $ 20 to $ 25 an hour that veteran Carrier employees — with only a high school diploma — can earn building furnaces and fan coils in Indianapolis. The typical manufacturing worker in the state earns $ 59,000 a year, about $ 20,000 a year more than the typical service job.

And for less credentialed workers, that margin is the difference between having a shot at a middle-class life, including owning a home and sending children to college, and having to struggle to make ends meet.

Graphic

How the president-elect's deal measures up to U.S. manufacturing job losses.

"These are truly irreplaceable jobs," said Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, an advocacy group, and a native of Rensselaer, Ind. "A manufacturing job is one of the only ladders to fulfilling the American dream for a worker without a college degree."

"A manufacturing worker who loses their job at Carrier will be resigned to facing a lower standard of living and leaner retirement years," Mr. Paul added. "Carrier is special because it happened at the right time and the right place and it gained a high profile. But obviously, Donald Trump and Mike Pence can't intervene every time a plant closes."

The economic fortunes for this group have been shrinking for years, which is a major reason the story of Mr. Trump and Carrier has resonated so deeply.

In Indiana, in particular, as in other so-called Rust Belt states, there are a lot of people who are less educated: Just 16.5 percent of the state's residents ages 25 to 64 have a bachelor's degree, half the rate for the country over all. And while about 30 percent have an associate degree or some college, the remaining 44 percent of Indiana residents have only a high school diploma — or less.

Nor has manufacturing remained the sole domain of whites. It provides a crucial source of higher-paying jobs for minorities.

In the popular imagination, the Indianapolis factory where 1,400 Carrier workers build furnaces and fan coils looks like a scene out of "The Deer Hunter" or "Norma Rae." Blue-collar guys walking through the plant gate, lunch pail in hand, or white women barely getting by after years on the line.

But the reality at the Carrier plant that Mr. Trump will visit on Thursday is very different. About half the workers are African-American, making it a much more diverse workplace than many white-collar settings.

Women account for a substantial portion of the work force as well, but the wages are anything but subsistence: over $ 20 an hour plus benefits for workers with just a high school diploma. That is an almost unheard-of level of pay for Indiana workers with that level of education in other sectors like food service and retail or even many health care jobs.

Carol Bigbee, 59, who has worked at Carrier for over 13 years, earns $ 22 an hour. Her daughter has a bachelor's degree and works in a medical lab, but earns one-third less.

"You have to be really blessed to find a job that pays that kind of money," she said.

In southern Indiana, where the Manitowoc Foodservice factory will close next year, good-paying blue-collar jobs are just as rare.

But Rich Sheffer, vice president for investor relations and treasurer at the company, said it had little choice but to relocate to Mexico.

"This company has 20 percent excess manufacturing capacity," he said. A few of the jobs are being transferred to Covington, Tenn., he said, but the Sellersburg plant "would have required a massive investment in automation. And we have to deal with profit margins that are trailing the industry."

Mr. Sheffer said his company's situation was different from that of Carrier, which has profitable operations in Indiana but could make more money in Mexico.

"Our motivation is completely different, but," he added, "we haven't been contacted by anybody in the Trump administration."

Continue reading the main story

Dodd-Frank, in place after finanical crisis, targeted byTrump and Mnuchin – USA TODAY

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau(Photo: Brennan Linsley, AP)

Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary designee, made much of his banking fortune amid the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis, buying and reselling a distressed bank in California.

Now, the 53-year old former Goldman Sachs banker will have the President-elect’s ear in an effort to roll back the Dodd-Frank Act, legislation put in place with the goal of preventing such a crisis.

Revising Dodd-Frank is "the number one priority on the regulatory side," Mnuchin told CNBC Wednesday.

Few expect Trump to follow through on his populist campaign to scrap the legislation. The law, which was passed to lower excessive risk-taking by banks, has fans even on Wall Street. But Trump is expected to target requirements on lending, disclosure and liquidity that he considers stringent.

"Repealing any legislation is difficult," says James Ballentine, executive vice president of Congressional Relations and Political Affairs for the American Bankers Association. "Seeing what's working and not working in Dodd-Frank will likely be the approach taken."

Trump’s changes could be similar to a revision of the rules drafted by Congressman Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Earlier this year, Hensarling, one of the most vocal critics of Dodd-Frank, introduced the Financial Choice Act. Its proposals include removing smaller banks from many of Dodd Frank's requirements and easing capital requirements on large banks. It also would scrap the so-called Volcker Rule, which limits banks' speculative trading using customer deposits, and restructure the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Mnuchin's primary concern, he told CNBC, will be to “strip back” parts of Dodd-Frank that he believes inhibit banks from lending.

Banks complain that Dodd-Frank rules for a “qualified mortgage” are too restrictive. The CFPB removed what it called some "harmful" features in mortgage loans, including an "interest-only" period, “balloon payments" required at the end of the loan period, and loan terms longer than 30 years. The agency also prohibits excessive upfront points and fees and how much of applicants’ income can be applied to debt.

These rules have been burdensome for smaller, community banks, says Paul Merski, group executive vice president of Congressional Relations & Strategy at Independent Community Bankers of America. His group has lobbied to exempt the banks that hold mortgages — rather than selling them to third-parties – from the qualified mortgage rules.

"We've been pressing lawmakers and policymakers ever since Dodd-Frank was crafted to make sure it doesn't impact all banks in the same fashion," Merski says. “A lot of the problem with Dodd-Frank was it was a one-size-fits-all legislation.”

Dodd-Frank’s proponents have argued that the mortgage and housing markets have thrived with the new rules. "I'm aware of little or any evidence that (Dodd-Frank) has hindered banking," says Nick Ziegler, research professor at Brown University who’s studied Dodd-Frank.

Banks will also press Trump to reconsider a Dodd-Frank rule designed to curb excessive credit exposures of large banks by subjecting them to “enhanced supervision.” The rule caps credit exposures to a single party for banks with assets of more than $ 50 billion at 25% of the bank's total capital.

"I imagine Mnuchin would want to dilute those controls for certain kinds of banks," Ziegler said. "Relaxing capital controls for small and medium banks, if done properly, may be helpful." But loosening the capital control rules for large banks would be "a bad idea," he said.

The Volcker Rule also will come under scrutiny. Named after the former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, the provision limits banks from using customer deposits to engage in "proprietary” trading — trading for banks’ benefit and not customers — of speculative securities. It was a direct response to the rampant trading of derivatives that contributed to the financial crisis.

Changes to the rule could possibly result in banks being examined less frequently for derivatives trading or an expansion of the types of derivatives allowed, Ziegler says.

"It's unlikely the Volcker Rule is completely eliminated," he says. "But certain provisions may be reversed that gives banks more discretion.It could inject a great deal more risk."

Mnuchin didn't provide details on the Volcker Rule when pressed by CNBC. But he said "the number one problem" with it is that "it's too complicated."

Critics of the CFPB have also pressed to undermine its oversight structure. The agency, funded by the Federal Reserve, remains independent of Congressional oversight. But the banking industry would like to see it funded by Congress and for its director to be replaced by a five-member commission, a scenario that some say would threaten its independence.

."

The agency "has been a very welcome addition to the regulatory landscape," he says. "It'd be a shame to make consumers more vulnerable to predatory lenders and retail financial firms," Ziegler said.

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Goldman Sachs poised for return to power in Trump White House – Politico

Wall Street's most powerful firm, Goldman Sachs, is dominating the early days of the incoming Trump administration. | Getty

NEW YORK — Government Sachs is returning to Washington.

After a decade in the wilderness, Wall Street's most powerful firm, Goldman Sachs, is dominating the early days of the incoming Trump administration. The newly picked Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, spent 17 years at Goldman. Trump's top incoming White House adviser, Steve Bannon, spent his early career at the bank. So did Anthony Scaramucci, one of Trump's top transition advisers.

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Goldman's president, Gary Cohn, spent an hour schmoozing with President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday and could be up for an administration job, possibly as director of the Office of Management and Budget, people close to Cohn and the transition said. Cohn, a long-time commodities trader, is friendly with Trump's powerful son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

It's a stunning reversal of fortune for Goldman, a long-time Washington power that fell out of favor following the financial crisis. CEO Lloyd Blankfein got hauled before Congress along with other Wall Street executives to account for their behavior. And Trump, who ran as a populist and bashed Wall Street on the campaign trail, featured Blankfein as a shady and dangerous character in his final campaign ad.

Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi famously labeled Goldman the "great Vampire Squid" on the face of America.

Had Hillary Clinton won the White House, Goldman faced a virtual lock-out from Washington with Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders poised to block and major picks from the bank or any other firm on Wall Street.

Now Goldman, whose proximity to the levers of power dates to the early 20th Century and the creation of the Federal Reserve, stands to return to a level of influence unmatched by any other company in America. And Warren and her allies are left throwing darts from the sidelines.

"We are talking about a massive change in tone in literally just three weeks," said William Cohan a former banker and author of "Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Run the World. "If this had gone as the cognoscenti thought it was going to go we would be hearing Elizabeth Warren with her megaphone saying no one with a Wall Street background is getting anywhere near a Washington job."

The rise of Goldman is also filled with ironies for Trump, even beyond his recent bashing of Blankfein.

Like many Wall Street banks, Goldman stopped doing business with the real estate mogul years ago, scared off by his bankruptcy filings. Many of the firm's top executives made it clear they preferred Clinton for president.

Now Mnuchin, whose father was also a powerful Goldman banker, will be Trump's top economic adviser, and he is already promising an agenda that thrills Wall Street and terrifies many Democrats.

"Our number one priority will be tax reform. This will be the largest tax change since Reagan," Mnuchin said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday, flanked by Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor tapped by Trump to serve as Commerce secretary. "We're going to cut corporate taxes … we're going to get to 15 percent," said Mnuchin, who also argued for changing parts of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law that curtailed many of Wall Street's swashbuckling ways.

"The number one problem with Dodd-Frank is it's way too complicated and it cuts back on lending," Mnuchin said. "So we want to strip back parts of Dodd-Frank that prevent banks from lending. And that will be the number one priority on the regulatory side."

Those kinds of comments and the rise of Goldman and Wall Street influence in Trump's Washington is sending progressive Democrats into a panic. Liberals fear an agenda that will slash tax rates for the wealthy and corporations and gut regulations while allowing Wall Street to go back to the kind of trading practices that helped fuel the financial crisis.

Even many reform-minded conservatives wanted Trump to pick a different Treasury Secretary, someone like House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling or former BB&T CEO John Allison for the job. Both have strong views on increasing bank capital requirements and fighting so-called "Too Big to Fail" institutions. It's much less clear that Mnuchin will do anything to make life difficult for large banks.

Warren came out firing against Mnuchin on Tuesday night. And Democrats plan to hammer the Treasury nominee's record as head of OneWest, a California bank derided as a "foreclosure machine" during the depths of the crisis.

"Steve Mnuchin is the Forrest Gump of the financial crisis — he managed to participate in all the worst practices on Wall Street," Warren said in a statement on Tuesday night. "He spent two decades at Goldman Sachs helping the bank peddle the same kind of mortgage products that blew up the economy and sucked down billions in taxpayer bailout money before he moved on to run a bank that was infamous for aggressively foreclosing on families."

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, which will consider Mnuchin's nomination, promised thorough hearings including a focus on Mnuchin's time at OneWest. The attacks may not be enough to derail Mnuchin, but they will add to a developing Democratic strategy of undercutting Trump's blue-collar credentials by portraying him as a billionaire plutocrat governing with the interests of his rich friends in mind.

"There are a number of serious problems raised by populating the most senior positions in government from a single bank and from a single industry," said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of financial reform group Better Markets. "Whether it's true or not, Goldman Sachs will be perceived as having privileged access and influence throughout the government. What we need most, and Candidate Trump seemed to understand this, is a view that prioritizes what's good for Main Street and the real economy."

Goldman defenders say a negative focus on Mnuchin's time at the bank is unfair and that he has the economic and markets expertise to help create faster economic growth that lifts wages across the board.

"I commend President-elect Trump on his outstanding selection of Steven Mnuchin to be Secretary of the Treasury," former Goldman CEO and George W. Bush Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said in a statement on Wednesday. "Steven embodies the characteristics necessary to be a very good Treasury secretary. He is a doer with the analytic and political skills to get things done in a complex environment."

Goldman supporters also note that had Clinton won, the left would have pushed for Gary Gensler, former head of the CFTC and himself a long-time Goldman banker, to be Treasury secretary or take some other high-profile post.

"Throughout its 147-year history, Goldman Sachs has encouraged its employees to give back to the community while they are working here and after they leave," said Jake Siewert, communications director at Goldman. "We are proud that many have gone on to serve their country and their communities after they have left."

The return of Goldman to prominence in Washington restores a tradition that waned in recent years. The relationship dates to back at least to 1913 when one of the firm's founding partners, Henry Goldman, helped create the Federal Reserve.

The influence declined during the Depression only to rise again with Goldman head Sidney Weinberg's close relationship with President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. More recently, Goldman held sway in President Bill Clinton's White House with the elevation of former co-chairman Robert Rubin to Treasury secretary during a period that saw significant deregulation of the banking industry and the repeal of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall law separating the activities of retail and investment banking.

And when the financial crisis hit in 2008, then-president Bush turned to Paulson to help design a Wall Street bailout package that pumped hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars into the financial industry.

Defenders of the bailout say it saved the economy from potential ruin and most banks including Goldman quickly paid back all federal funds. But Wall Street critics worry that the return of Goldman to such levels of power will ensure friendly treatment of the industry that could spark more crises in the future.

"My real issue with Mnuchin is that it really is a start the countdown clock moment to the next crash," said Kelleher. "That is the inevitability if the Wall Street view of the world once again becomes policy."

Trump’s new Treasury, Commerce nominees say no ‘absolute’ tax cut for the wealthy, predict faster economic growth – Washington Post

Banker Steven Mnuchin is the next potential Treasury Secretary in Donald Trump’s administration. Here’s what you need to know about him. (Deirdra O’Regan/The Washington Post)

President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Treasury Department on Wednesday called reforming the nation's tax code his top priority, promising significant tax breaks for the middle class but no overall tax cut for high-income households.

Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs banker and Hollywood financier, confirmed in an interview Wednesday on CNBC's Squawk Box that Trump had asked him to serve in the administration. Billionaire industrialist Wilbur Ross also confirmed that he is the nominee for Commerce Secretary. In the joint interview, they professed confidence in the new administration's ability to boost economic growth as high as 4 percent a year.

Crucial to that projection would be passage of Trump's proposed overhaul of the tax code, including streamlining individual tax rates into three brackets and reducing the corporate tax rate to 15 percent. Independent research groups have estimated the plan could cost as much as $ 6 trillion over the next decade. However, that analysis does not include the potential economic benefits the tax cuts could generate.

Mnuchin said Wednesday that he believed the tax cuts would generate more jobs, helping to offset the cost. Some of Trump's economic advisers said during the campaign that his plan would not add to the federal deficit. However, the Tax Foundation estimated that even with so-called "dynamic scoring," Trump's tax package could cost about $ 3 trillion over a decade.

In addition, Mnuchin emphasized that a reduced tax rate for the highest earners would be offset by the elimination or curtailing of many deductions that favor the wealthy. He suggested that the cap on the popular deduction for mortgage interest could be lowered but did not provide details. The current cap is $ 1 million on first and second mortgages.

Mnuchin also pushed back against analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center that found the bulk of the benefits under Trump's plan would go to wealthy households, while some single-parent households would end up paying higher taxes. He highlighted plans for a child-care tax credit and rebates for lower-income families.

"There will be no absolute tax cut for the upper class," he said. “There will be a big tax cut for the middle class."

[Trump expected to name financier Steve Mnuchin to Treasury]

The comments highlight two potential sources of tension for the Trump administration as it pushes its tax plan – one with congressional Republicans, the other with the federal budget deficit. They also fly in the face of every independent analysis of the Trump plan, including one Trump has frequently cited favorably.

Mnuchin reiterated Trump's commitment to cutting taxes for the middle class, a key difference between the president-elect's campaign plan and the tax blueprint put forth by GOP leaders on Capitol Hill. The congressional plan, like Trump's, would cut taxes for the wealthy and for corporations, but it would not do nearly as much as Trump would to cut taxes for lower- and middle-income Americans. Reconciling the two will be a major sticking point in any tax-reform negotiations next year.

Mnuchin also said two things about Trump's tax plan that independent analyses do not support. One is the idea that the wealthy will receive no net tax benefits from the plan. The other is that the plan will not add to the deficit, because of increased economic growth.

Even the friendliest analysis toward Trump, work by the independent Tax Foundation that the Trump campaign frequently cited to bolster his proposals, finds Trump's plan would add at least $ 2.6 trillion to the federal debt over a decade, and as much as $ 3.9 trillion, after accounting for increased economic growth.

The Tax Foundation also finds Trump's plan would boost incomes for the top 1 percent of U.S. earners by between 10 and 16 percent, an amount that dwarfs the benefits lower- and middle-income earners would see from the plan. That's true even though the group factored in Trump's promise to limit deductions for high earners, which Mnuchin reiterated on Wednesday.

Mnuchin and Ross also appeared to step back from some of Trump's most confrontational rhetoric on the campaign trail. Trump has repeatedly threatened to levy double-digit tariffs on goods coming from China and Mexico and pull out of existing free-trade deals. But Ross said Wednesday those measures may only be a last resort.

“Everybody talks about tariffs as the first things. Tariffs are the last thing. Tariffs are a part of the negotiation," he said. “The real trick is going to be increase American exports."

Trump scored an early victory Tuesday night when air-conditioning manufacturer Carrier announced it was reversing plans to move a factory from Indiana to Mexico after speaking with the president-elect. The decision is expected to save about 1,000 U.S. jobs.

"I's a present from the president," Ross said. “Here we have a trade victory before we even come into office.”

Saudis say to take ‘big hit’ on oil output for OPEC deal, Iran can freeze – Reuters

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Wednesday OPEC was close to clinching a deal to limit oil output, adding Riyadh was prepared to accept “a big hit” on its own production and agree to arch-rival Iran freezing output at pre-sanctions levels.

The comments could be seen as a compromise by Riyadh, which in recent weeks insisted that Iran fully participate in any cut.

Brent crude futures jumped by 7 percent, reaching nearly $ 50 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries started a closed-door session at around 1000 GMT (5:00 a.m. ET) with a news conference scheduled for 1500 GMT.

Falih also said OPEC was focusing on reducing output to a ceiling of 32.5 million barrels per day, or cutting by more than 1 million bpd, and hoped Russia and other non-OPEC members would contribute a cut of another 0.6 million bpd.

“It will mean that we (Saudi) take a big cut and a big hit from our current production and from our forecast for 2017. So we will not do it unless we make sure that there is consensus and an agreement to meet all of the principles,” Falih said.

But he added that even if OPEC failed to reach a deal, the market would slowly recover: “We believe that non-OPEC growth has reversed and also most of the OPEC growth we've seen is already behind us,” he told reporters.

“If we can't come to an agreement, then the other scenario of rolling over and waiting for the market to recover on its own is not a bad outcome.”

Clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran have dominated many previous OPEC meetings.

On Tuesday, Iran wrote to OPEC saying it wanted Saudi Arabia to cut production by as much as 1 million bpd, more than Riyadh was willing to offer, OPEC sources who saw the letter told Reuters.

But the tone changed on Wednesday. “I’m optimistic,” said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, adding there had been no request for Iran to cut output. He also said Russia was ready to reduce output.

“Moscow have agreed to reduce their production and cut after our decision,” Zanganeh said.

BIGGER DEAL

The 14-country OPEC, which accounts for a third of global oil production, made a preliminary agreement in Algiers in September to cap output at around 32.5-33 million bpd versus the current 33.64 million bpd to prop up oil prices, which have halved since mid-2014.

OPEC said it would exempt Iran, Libya and Nigeria from cuts as their output has been crimped by unrest and sanctions.

The September deal was seen as a victory for Iran. Tehran has long argued it wants to raise production to regain market share lost under Western sanctions, when Saudi Arabia increased output.

In recent weeks, Riyadh changed its stance and offered to cut its output by 0.5 million bpd, according to OPEC sources, while suggesting Iran limit production at around 3.8 million bpd – in line with or slightly above the country’s current output.

Tehran has sent mixed signals, saying it wanted to produce as much as 4.2 million bpd. Iran’s letter to OPEC suggested Saudi Arabia should cut output to 9.5 million bpd.

Documents prepared for Wednesday’s meeting propose the group cut production by 1.2 million bpd from October levels, but an OPEC source said ministers had begun debating a cut as high as 1.4 million bpd.

The source said that out of additional non-OPEC cuts of 0.6 million bpd, OPEC expected Russia to cut by 0.4 million. A Russian ministry source said the figure was “a bit excessive”.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said on Wednesday he hoped an agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC would “take out of the market between 1.8 and 2.0 million bpd”.

OPEC member Iraq has also been pressing for higher output limits, saying it needs more money to fight the militant group Islamic State, but Del Pino said Iraq would contribute to cuts.

Iran and Iraq together produce over 8 million bpd, only slightly behind long-time leader Saudi with 10.5 million bpd.

The argument between Iraq and Saudi Arabia mainly focuses on whether Baghdad should use its own output estimates to limit production or rely on lower figures from OPEC’s experts.

“If you get this deal done, it would be huge. You remove a lot of oil from the market and you get the Russian participation,” said veteran OPEC watcher and founder of Pira consultancy Gary Ross.

(Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, Shadia Nasralla and Lisa Barrington; Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Dale Hudson)

Trump reaches deal with Carrier to keep jobs in Indiana – Politico

“We are pleased to have reached a deal with President-elect Trump & VP-elect Pence,” the company said. | AP Photo

At a moment when much of Washington is watching to see how Donald Trump will handle his new job, the president-elect is demonstrating his most famous skill: the art of the deal.

Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence surprised skeptics Tuesday night by persuading United Technologies to keep “close to 1,000″ factory jobs at the Carrier manufacturing plant in Indianapolis instead of moving them to Mexico, according to a company tweet. “We are pleased to have reached a deal with President-elect Trump & VP-elect Pence,” the company said. “More details soon.”

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What United Technologies gets in return remains unclear, but multiple news sources were reporting Tuesday night that the deal involved state tax incentives. Pence remains governor of Indiana until Jan. 20, and his gubernatorial staff hammered out the details. Trump and Pence will travel Thursday to Indiana to announce the agreement.

The victory is largely a symbolic one, given that the U.S. has been losing more than 300,000 manufacturing jobs each year to overseas competition, according to the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. But the jobs saved represent about half the 2,000 that Carrier was preparing to move south to Mexico. They go a long way to redeeming a pledge that candidate Trump made in February to halt Carrier’s offshoring–or slap a steep tariff on any air conditioners that Carrier imports from Mexico back to the U.S.

Carrier became a campaign flashpoint when a cell phone video of Carrier’s announcement to workers of the move went viral. Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Bill Clinton, who was campaigning for Hillary, all denounced it.

But only Trump said he’d keep those jobs in the U.S.–a pledge he seemed unlikely to keep. The union at Carrier’s Indianapolis plant demonstrated its skepticism by endorsing Sanders. Doubts remained even as late as Thanksgiving, when Trump tweeted, “MAKING PROGRESS – Will know soon!”

The Carrier deal doesn’t present much of a model moving forward for reversing deindustrialization. “Every savvy CEO will now threaten to ship jobs to Mexico,” University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers tweeted Tuesday night, “and demand a payment to stay. Great economic policy.”

But Trump’s credibility as a tribune of the working class should get at least a brief reprieve from the Carrier deal.

"Corporations, like United Technologies, that have built large profitable companies through taxpayer-funded, federal contracts, have an obligation to invest in American workers, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D.-Ind.) told POLITICO earlier this week. “I'm fully committed to ensuring our federal policies—including tax breaks, federal contracts, and other government incentives—encourage domestic investments in our workers, their families, and communities, and do not reward corporations that offshore American jobs.”

Carrier’s plan to shift jobs to Mexico was well along when negotiations entered high gear. The company had given back the city of Indianapolis $ 1.2 million in tax incentives, according to the Indianapolis Star, and returned $ 382,000 in training grants to the state. It had also negotiated a severance deal with the Indianapolis workers–one week’s pay for every year on the job, plus six months’ health benefits. The move south was expected to save Carrier an estimated $ 65 million in labor costs.

But Trump turned it around, in part, according to the New York Times, by agreeing to “tone down” his threat to impose a 35 percent tariff on air conditioners imported from Mexico. "He can do it legally, but there would be a cost to the United States," said Warren Maruyama, a trade lawyer at Hogan Lovells and former USTR general counsel. "An economic one, since Mexico is a huge export market for us, and for him; a political one, since Mexico is likely to target U.S. industrial and farm products that are located in key states.”

United Technologies may also have been spooked by a threat Saturday from Sen. Bernie Sanders to introduce a bill that would, among other things, halt federal contracts to companies that offshore jobs. United Technologies received $ 6 billion in federal contracts last year.

Eliana Johnson contributed to this report.

Trump chooses Elaine L. Chao to be transportation secretary, Rep. Tom Price for Health and Human Services – Washington Post

President-elect Donald Trump has chosen former labor secretary Elaine Chao to be the next secretary of transportation. Here’s what you should know about her. (Sarah Parnass,Osman Malik/The Washington Post)

President-elect Donald Trump has chosen former Bush administration official Elaine Chao as his transportation secretary, a position that will take on outsized importance with Trump's plan to spend billions rebuilding the nation's infrastructure, a person with knowledge of the decision said Tuesday.

Chao, a former labor secretary and the wife of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), would oversee the massive program Trump is planning to rebuild bridges, roads and other infrastructure. Trump's campaign has said he wants to spend up to $ 1 trillion, though the specifics are unclear, as is whether congressional Republicans would support the initiative.

Chao served as labor secretary during President George W. Bush's entire eight-year administration and was the first Asian American female Cabinet member in U.S. history. If confirmed by the Senate, she would add diversity to a Trump inner circle initially criticized as consisting of mostly older white men.

Transition team officials would not comment on Chao, though senior Trump communications adviser Jason Miller told Fox Business Network on Tuesday that Trump's transportation secretary nominee would come later in the day. The news of Chao's nomination was first reported by Politico.

[Trump expected to pick Elaine L. Chao for transportation secretary]

Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), a veteran lawmaker and vehement critic of the Affordable Care Act, has been picked as President-elect Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

It came after Trump's team announced that he will take a break from transition planning, if briefly, to resume the occasionally raucous campaign-style rallies that marked his outsider bid for the White House. Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence have scheduled a rally in Cincinnati Thursday night, part of what Trump aides are billing as a "thank you" tour. It is unclear where else the duo might hold similar events.

Yet Trump was also working to form his government. Earlier Tuesday, he chose Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), a fierce critic of the Affordable Care Act and a proponent of overhauling the nation's entitlement programs, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

[Trump names Rep. Tom Price as next HHS secretary]

In naming Chao, who has also served as deputy transportation secretary and has been married to McConnell since 1993, Trump turned to a consummate Washington insider after campaigning on a vow to bring change to Washington.

Since leaving the Bush administration, Chao has served as a fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a contributor to Fox News. She is also a former chief executive of the United Way of America, director of the Peace Corps and banker with Citicorp in New York.

The Price nomination came in a news release early Tuesday that lavished praise on him, a third-generation doctor who chairs the House Budget Committee and became a champion of Trump's candidacy. In naming him to join his Cabinet, the president-elect called Price "exceptionally qualified to shepherd our commitment to repeal and replace Obamacare and bring affordable and accessible health care to every American."

Trump also named Seema Verma, a health-care consultant who was the architect of Medicaid changes in Vice President-elect Mike Pence's home state of Indiana, to run a crucial section of HHS: the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Here are the people whose names have been floated for Trump's Cabinet

As HHS secretary, Price would be the nation's top health official and the incoming administration's point person for dismantling the sprawling 2010 health-care law, which Trump promised during his campaign to start dismantling on his first day in the Oval Office. The 62-year-old lawmaker, who represents a wealthy suburban Atlanta district, has played a leading role in Republican opposition to the law and has helped draft several comprehensive bills to replace it. The GOP-led House has voted five dozen times to eliminate all or part of the ACA but has never had a chance to accomplish its goal as long as President Obama has been in the White House.

While many Republicans, including House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.), wavered in their attitudes toward Trump during his campaign, Price was a devoted foot soldier. In May, he organized a joint statement by nine GOP House committee chairs, pledging loyalty to Trump and calling on "all Americans to support him."

Ryan said in a tweet Tuesday morning that Price "has made health care his life's work. He is the absolute perfect choice for HHS Secretary."

A former chairman of the conservative Republican study committee, Price has been affiliated with the House tea party caucus and has lambasted what he termed a "vile liberal agenda that is threatening everything we hold dear as Americans." His congressional website describes him as "devoted to limited government and lower spending."

His selection drew an immediate rebuke from the Senate's incoming minority leader, Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.). "Congressman Price has proven to be far out of the mainstream of what Americans want when it comes to Medicare, the Affordable Care Act, and Planned Parenthood," Schumer said in a statement. "Thanks to those three programs, millions of American seniors, families, people with disabilities and women have access to quality, affordable health care. Nominating Congressman Price to be the HHS secretary is akin to asking the fox to guard the hen house."

House Republicans have had a far more detailed plan than Trump for reconfiguring the nation's health-care system along conservative lines. Earlier this year, Price suggested that a Trump presidency would advance the House GOP health-care agenda. "When I talk to people who work closely with Trump, what they tell me is that behind closed doors he's one of the best listeners they've ever worked for or with in their life," Price said in an interview in the spring. "Which is kind of counterintuitive, given what some of his public persona is."

During the campaign, Trump railed against the Affordable Care Act and vowed to repeal and replace it. He has even said he would summon Congress to a special session to do so. Since his election, he has been less explicit about his intended timing.

Kelsey Snell contributed to this report.

Corporate Earnings, US GDP Experience Stout Expansions – Wall Street Journal

Updated Nov. 29, 2016 10:51 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—Corporate profits continued to rebound in the third quarter alongside solid growth in the broader U.S. economy.

The Commerce Department on Tuesday reported that a key measure of business earnings—profits after tax without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments—rose 3.5% from the second quarter, its third straight quarterly increase.

Compared with a year earlier, after-tax profits rose 5.2% in the third quarter, the first annual increase since late 2014 and the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2012.

"We had been anticipating a turnaround for profits as nominal growth picked up; but the firming, at least so far, looks more rapid and stronger than we had expected," J.P. Morgan Chase economist Daniel Silver said in a note to clients.

Tuesday's report also showed that gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at an inflation- and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, the strongest growth in two years.

That was up from last month's estimate that output rose at a 2.9% pace in the third quarter and beat economists' expectations for a revision up to 3% growth. The latest reading was boosted by stronger consumer spending, though business investment came in weaker than earlier estimated.

"The U.S. economy is in good shape in the second half of 2016," PNC Financial Services Group Deputy Chief Economist Gus Faucher said in a note to clients. "After some softness in late 2015 and early 2016, tied to an inventory correction and a downturn in energy production, growth has picked back up."

Business profits represented 9.1% of U.S. GDP in the third quarter, up from a recent low of 7.8% in late 2015 though down from the 10.2% average seen in 2012 through 2014.

Corporate profits have been pressured in recent years by various forces including weak global growth, a strong dollar that damps demand for U.S. exports and slumping commodity prices that battered the energy and agriculture sectors. But business earnings have shown signs of stabilization this year as some of those headwinds faded.

"Based on available reports and analysts' estimates, aggregate corporate earnings per share appeared to continue to rebound in the third quarter, reflecting improvements across a wide range of industries, including the energy sector," noted the minutes, released last week, of the Federal Reserve's Nov. 1-2 policy meeting.

Business investment, though, remains a weak spot for the economy. One measure of capital expenditures, fixed nonresidential investment, rose at a weak 0.1% pace last quarter versus an earlier estimate of 1.2% growth. Business investment in structures rose more than earlier estimated, but growth in spending on intellectual property products like software and research and development was weaker than earlier thought, and spending on equipment declined more sharply than previously estimated.

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the third quarter following modest growth in late 2015 and early 2016. Output climbed 1.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from annual growth of 1.3% in the second quarter.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told lawmakers earlier this month that "the pickup reflected some rebuilding of inventories and a surge in soybean exports" as well as "moderate gains" for consumer spending, though she also flagged continued weakness in business investment and manufacturing output as concerns.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, rose at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, according to Tuesday's report. That was up from an earlier estimate of 2.1% growth, though still a slowdown from the second quarter's robust 4.3% growth rate for household outlays. Net exports and inventories helped boost GDP growth in the third quarter, while a pullback in residential investment was a drag on the broader economy. A rise in federal-government outlays was mostly offset by a drop in spending by state and local governments.

Looking forward, economists expect continued growth in the final three months of 2016. Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers on Tuesday projected GDP growth at a 1.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter.

Economic growth in the coming years could be boosted by fiscal stimulus, according to some forecasters. Republicans next year will control both Congress and the White House, and President-elect Donald Trump has said he hopes to enact an overhaul of the tax code and an infrastructure-investment program.

With unemployment hovering around 5% for more than a year and long-sluggish U.S. inflation appearing to firm, the Fed is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates at its upcoming Dec. 13-14 meeting, barring unexpected developments in economic data or financial markets. The central bank has held its benchmark federal-funds rate at a range of 0.25% to 0.50% since December 2015.

The Commerce Department will release additional revisions for third-quarter GDP and corporate-profits data on Dec. 22. The agency will release its first estimate for fourth-quarter GDP on Jan. 27.

Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com

US GDP Growth Revised Up to Strongest Expansion in Two Years – Wall Street Journal

Nov. 29, 2016 8:31 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—U.S. economic growth last quarter was stronger than initially thought and corporate profits rose, signs of continued health in the world's largest economy.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at an inflation- and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, the strongest growth in two years, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected growth would be revised up to a 3.0% pace from last month's initial estimate of 2.9%. Growth accelerated from the second quarter's more modest 1.4% pace.

The latest data showed stronger consumer spending over the summer compared with the government's initial estimate, but business investment was weaker than earlier thought.

Tuesday's report also showed that a key measure of U.S. corporate profits increased for the third consecutive quarter. Profits after tax, without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rose 3.5% from the second quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $ 1.694 trillion in the third quarter.

Compared with a year earlier, after-tax profits rose 5.2% last quarter, the strongest annual reading since the fourth quarter of 2012.

An alternative measure of business earnings, pretax profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rose 6.6% in the third quarter from the prior period and was up 2.8% on the year.

Corporate profits have been pressured in recent years by various forces including weak global growth, a strong dollar that damps demand for U.S. exports and slumping commodity prices that battered the energy and agriculture sectors. But business earnings have shown signs of stabilization this year as some of those headwinds faded.

"Based on available reports and analysts' estimates, aggregate corporate earnings per share appeared to continue to rebound in the third quarter, reflecting improvements across a wide range of industries, including the energy sector," noted the minutes, released last week, of the Federal Reserve's Nov. 1-2 policy meeting.

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the third quarter following modest growth in late 2015 and early 2016. Output climbed 1.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from annual growth of 1.3% in the second quarter.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told lawmakers earlier this month that "the pickup reflected some rebuilding of inventories and a surge in soybean exports" as well as "moderate gains" for consumer spending, though she also flagged continued weakness in business investment and manufacturing output.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, rose at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, according to Tuesday's report. That was up from an earlier estimate of 2.1% growth, though still a slowdown from the second quarter's robust 4.3% growth rate for household outlays.

A measure of business spending, fixed nonresidential investment, rose at a weak 0.1% pace last quarter versus an earlier estimate of 1.2% growth. Business investment in structures rose more than earlier estimated, but growth in spending on intellectual property products like software and research and development was weaker than earlier thought, and spending on equipment declined more sharply than previously estimated.

Net exports and inventories helped boost GDP growth in the third quarter, while a pullback in residential investment was a drag on the broader economy. A rise in federal-government outlays was mostly offset by a drop in spending by state and local governments.

Looking forward, economists expect continued growth in the final three months of 2016. Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers last week projected GDP growth at a 1.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model estimated growth at a stronger 3.6% rate in the October-to-December period.

Economic growth in the coming years could be boosted by fiscal stimulus, according to some forecasters. Republicans next year will control both Congress and the White House, and President-elect Donald Trump has said he hopes to enact an overhaul of the tax code and an infrastructure-investment program.

With unemployment hovering around 5% for more than a year and long-sluggish U.S. inflation appearing to firm, the Fed is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates at its upcoming Dec. 13-14 meeting, barring unexpected developments in economic data or financial markets. The central bank has held its benchmark federal-funds rate at a range of 0.25% to 0.50% since December 2015.

The Commerce Department will release additional revisions for third-quarter GDP and corporate-profits data on Dec. 22. The agency will release its first estimate for fourth-quarter GDP on Jan. 27.

Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com and Jeffrey Sparshott at jeffrey.sparshott@wsj.com

Cyber Monday at Amazon: Pick, pack and ship – Baltimore Sun

It’s Cyber Monday morning at the Amazon fulfillment center in Southeast Baltimore, and the clock is ticking.

In the packing department, Marilyn Rochelle stuffs a Donald Trump Chia Pet into a cardboard box filled with bubble wrap, closes it with Amazon logo tape, slaps on a label and places it on a conveyor belt. Off goes the boxed orange pottery planter resembling a stoic president-elect: winding through the warehouse, to be scanned and sent down a slide, loaded onto a truck and shipped to the customer.

Rochelle does this about 100 times an hour, on an 11-hour shift, on the busiest day of the year for the nation’s largest online retailer — and on what was forecast to be its biggest Cyber Monday yet.

“It’s not difficult,” Rochelle says. “It’s teamwork.”

Pick, pack and ship is the motto at the fulfillment center, where more than 3,400 regular employees and thousands of seasonal helpers are pitching in to help make the holidays happen. Full-time employees who typically work 10-hour shifts at least four days a week now work 11-hour shifts five days a week. One can argue that these Amazon associates are the closest thing to Santa’s helpers in modern-day business.

The 24-hour fulfillment center, which spans 1 million square feet — the size of 28 football fields — was humming with roughly 14 miles of conveyor belts, gliding robots and humans picking, packing and shipping thousands of products every hour Monday morning.

“It all comes together like a symphony,” said Eric Powell, 34, an assistant general manager at the Baltimore fulfillment center. Thousands of units would be packaged by the hour there, he estimated. The result: “a super-busy, super-exciting day.”

The National Retail Federation first coined the term Cyber Monday in 2005, in light of the trend of consumers shopping online after Thanksgiving weekend — and retailers hosting deals in response.

The period of peak online shopping now extends well beyond Cyber Monday — Amazon workers refer to the span of days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday as the “Turkey Five.”

And this year was primed for growth: Adobe Digital Insights calculated late Monday that the day was the most successful online shopping date in history, generating $ 3.39 billion in sales with 10.2 percent growth over last year. Amazon officials said this past weekend broke sales records, and they expected to mark their busiest Cyber Monday to date, though they did not provide predicted sales figure for the single day.

“Last year on Cyber Monday, for reference, Amazon customers ordered 54 million units worldwide. That is 692 items per second, so that is a staggering number, and it’s going to be an even bigger number this year,” said Amazon spokeswoman Julie Law. She said Amazon predicted 17 percent to 27 percent growth in fourth-quarter sales compared to the same time last year, generating between $ 42 billion and $ 45.5 billion in 2016.

In the Baltimore fulfillment center — one of more than 70 around the nation — workers were already feeling the effects of “peak season.”

Nicholas Rote, who has been working there since its inception in March 2015, describes Cyber Monday in one word: “Crazy.”

Last year was the first holiday season at the fulfillment center, and Rote said it was “organized chaos.”

The 28-year-old Armistead Gardens resident, who helps transfer large or heavy products to other facilities in the area for shipment, said this year’s peak season is going better than last year despite the expected increase. Still, “there’s a lot more going on inside the building.”

One parking lot, which normally sees only a couple of rows of cars, is nearly filled because of the additional help this season, Rote said.

“We’ve taken a nice, drastic step to ensure that we get everything in, processed and out to where they need to be,” said Rote, who helps train Amazon’s new employees. “It’s pretty crazy working inside Amazon’s walls, but the best thing that keeps … your drive alive is the camaraderie with other Amazon people because it’s really diverse in there.”

“We all get along and work together. It’s cool to see a lot of people having jobs,” said Justin Brown, 27, of Northeast Baltimore, who packs items. On this particular Cyber Monday, he and colleagues packed the likes of Christmas decorations, mixed nuts, DVDs, educational toys, toilet paper, the hot Hasbro Pie Face Showdown game and Amazon devices such as the Echo Dot.

“People don’t want to go to the store. That’s what they do; they just order them,” said Chris Smith, 31, of West Baltimore, who works in the same department as Brown.

Before it was an Amazon fulfillment center, the site had been a General Motors assembly plant, which closed in 2005, taking more than 1,000 local jobs with it.

Now, full-time Amazon associates in Baltimore average over $ 15 an hour and have benefits such as health insurance and a 401(K), according to an Amazon spokesperson.

In recent years, media outlets have reported critically on working conditions in Amazon. The New York Times described a punishing, all-consuming culture at the corporate level, and the Allentown Morning Call documented heat-related safety issues at a distribution center. The company denied the allegations in The Times report and installed air-conditioning at its Allentown facility (it now has climate control at all its distribution centers, including Baltimore).

“At Amazon, safety is our top priority,” spokeswoman Kelly Cheeseman said in a statement Monday to The Sun. “We have more than 800 dedicated health and safety professionals working in our U.S. fulfillment centers and all employees start by completing a dedicated safety school.”

Workers on Monday spoke favorably about their experiences.

Every day, Brown said, presents a new challenge, with numbers to meet — especially during peak season — but also the opportunity to build skills for a career.

“It’s fast-paced. They tell us the numbers we need … to get for the customers and stuff, so we just push everything out and try to work as fast and in order as possible,” said Brown, noting the day’s package goals are often split into quarters, with the goal of about 150 to 200 units per quarter.

And despite missing out on time with loved ones during much of the holiday season, Smith and Brown say the friendly environment and fast pace keep them focused during their 55-plus-hour weeks during Amazon’s peak season.

Another Cyber Monday, another online sales record – CNET

Black Friday 2016’s reign as the biggest US online sales day ever didn’t last very long. Well, three days to be exact.

That’s because Cyber Monday is expected to hit $ 3.39 billion in online sales, according to the latest statistics from Adobe, edging out Black Friday by roughly $ 50 million. Jill Stein is already calling for a recount (OK, not really).

The fact that Cyber Monday hit a new record is no surprise. It’s done that in plenty of years past. What is a surprise, though, is that Black Friday nearly caught up.

Becky Tasker, managing analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, said retailers started offering discounts later this year — on Thanksgiving morning instead of a few days earlier — resulting in pent up demand on Black Friday. That fact shows that both retailers and consumers are getting more comfortable having holiday shopping take place later in the season, Tasker said, as online shipping improves and “buy online, pickup in-store” options grow.

“Everything is growing, but there’s more growth toward the end of the season as people take advantage of better shipping to get their products on time,” she said.

58

Cyber Monday 2016: The best deals we’ve found so far

The latest numbers keep up the trend of online sales spreading out to more days during the holidays, as consumers spend more money online and are able to shop using a variety of devices, including PCs, tablets and phones. Overall, Adobe expects 53 consecutive days of $ 1 billion-plus online sales days this holiday season, up from just 31 consecutive days last year.

“People can actually shop in more situations than they’ve been able to do in the past,” said Sam Shrauger, Visa senior vice president of digital products.

So, if you missed the Cyber Monday discounts, there’s a very good chance plenty more great deals will be coming later this week and well into December. In general, better deals are available later in the holiday season for gaming consoles, toys and discounted gift cards, according to Marissa Tarleton, RetailMeNot’s chief marketing officer.

As far as the best sellers on Cyber Monday, Adobe said the top toys were Lego sets, Shopkins, Nerf, Barbie and Little Live Pets, and the five best-selling electronics were Sony PlayStation 4, Microsoft Xbox, Samsung 4K TVs, Apple iPads and Amazon Fire.

Amazon, which said it is on pace to have its best Cyber Monday yet, also said its Echo Dot smart speaker was its best-selling item on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Of the more than 2 million toys the e-commerce giant sold in the first half of Monday, Pie Face Showdown Game by Hasbro has been its best-selling toy so far.

Sales on phones and tablets on Cyber Monday continue to grow, despite lots of challenges for the small screens. Adobe said mobile revenue would reach $ 1.19 billion Monday, up 48 percent from a year earlier. That’s just below Black Friday, which was the first day in US retail history to hit over $ 1 billion in mobile sales.

You can bet that there will be more online sales records on these major shopping days in the coming years, with mobile playing a bigger role.

“We aren’t really seeing any signs of slowing down,” Tasker said. “Consumers just continue to take advantage of online discounts year-over-year.”

US companies hope Trump will stick to business roots, back Cuba ties – Reuters

Nov 28 U.S. companies are looking for ways to persuade President-elect Donald Trump to soften his threats to cancel the Obama administration’s opening to Cuba, a reversal they fear could cost them hundreds of millions of dollars.

During his campaign, Trump said he thought restoring diplomatic ties with Cuba was fine, but that Democratic President Barack Obama should have pushed harder for concessions from Havana before easing restrictions on travel and trade.

On Monday, three days after the death of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, the Republican president-elect said in a Twitter post that he would end what he referred to as Obama’s “deal” if Cuba did not do more for its people.

But he did not promise to reverse the changes, and advocates for closer ties said they hoped the businessman-turned-politician would stay true to his roots and foster economic ties.

“He has said things that are frankly hopeful to folks on both sides of the debate,” U.S. Representative Mark Sanford, one of several Republican lawmakers who back increased engagement, told Reuters.

Trade associations for companies with business interests in Cuba hope to persuade Trump to continue Obama’s opening, and have been discussing a joint effort to press the Republican’s administration, a person with knowledge of the talks said.

Trump won the White House on promises to create jobs. Advocates for increased engagement argue that promoting U.S. trade with Cuba would create opportunities, and jobs, in industries from telecommunications to agriculture, and particularly in tourism.

SMALLER PIECE OF CAKE

Several U.S. airlines are already flying to Cuba, Starwood Hotels & Resorts signed a contract to manage a Cuban hotel and Carnival Corp has begun cruises to the island.

While business in Cuba has yet to generate much revenue for U.S. companies, reversing Obama’s policies could leave Americans out of a potential market or mean their investments so far have been wasted.

“If the U.S. continues to limit trade (with Cuba), and the European Union, China and Russia continue to expand trade, there will be a smaller piece of cake left for U.S. companies,” said Jose Maria Vinales Camallonga, director of International Operations at Lupicinio, a Spanish law firm that represents large corporations in their Cuba dealings.

As Trump issued his tweet on Monday, American Airlines Flight 17, the first commercial flight in more than half a century between the United States and Havana took off for the Cuban capital, part of a wider push by U.S. carriers to boost flights there.

If flights stopped or demand slipped because Trump imposed new travel restrictions, U.S. airlines could lose hundreds of millions of dollars in potential revenue in the years to come, said John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.

The Department of Transportation has authorized 1.2 million seats for trips to Cuba by commercial U.S. carriers per year, below the 3.4 million airlines requested, but representing significant revenue, he said.

Cuba also represents a potential market for U.S. products such as chickens, wheat and rice, though U.S. farm exports to the island have actually fallen since Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro moved to normalize relations in December 2014.

Still, lawmakers from several states with big agricultural sectors like Arkansas and Texas back closer ties.

If Trump reversed Obama’s Cuba policies “he would have to take on one of his main constituencies, which is the business community,” said Julia Sagebien, an expert on Cuban business at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia.

In a bid to cement Obama’s Cuba policy before Trump takes over on Jan. 20, the administration has been encouraging U.S. companies to forge further business deals.

More than half a dozen announcements, in areas from travel to manufacturing to telecommunications, had been expected in the next two months, a person familiar with the matter said. But Fidel Castro’s death and uncertainty about Trump’s plans could affect that timeline, the person said. (Additional reporting by Sarah Marsh in Havana, Matt Spetalnick and Joel Schectman in Washington, Malathi Nayak in New York and Jeffrey Dastin in Los Angeles; Editing by Christian Plumb and Jonathan Oatis)

Donald Trump’s Line on Cuba Unsettles Latin America – Wall Street Journal

Nov. 28, 2016 5:42 p.m. ET

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threats to reverse the Obama administration's historic re-engagement with Cuba could drive a new wedge between Washington and Latin America, a region already suspicious of the next American leader over his rhetoric on immigration and trade.

Mr. Trump on Monday said he would roll back the U.S.'s improved relations with Cuba forged by President Barack Obama unless Cuba's Communist government offers "a better deal," following statements from his aides that he wants to pressure Havana for more democratic reform.

"If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal," Mr. Trump wrote in a message on Twitter.

Any undoing of the detente between Washington and Havana would be viewed as a big step back in the region, not only by leftist allies of Cuba like Venezuela and Bolivia but also by conservative governments in Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Colombia. It would also likely complicate regional cooperation on a range of issues, from immigration to security and anti-drug efforts.

"It would be a grave error by Mr. Trump," said former Ecuadorean Foreign Relations Minister Jose Ayala-Lasso. "It wouldn't only be a measure that would affect relations between Cuba and the United States, but I think all of Latin America that promoted a normalization of these relations would feel rejected and offended."

The White House on Monday warned against reversing U.S. engagement with Cuba. Press Secretary Josh Earnest said any attempt by Mr. Trump to disengage from Cuba will be much more difficult to pull off than it may appear, citing agreements to allow U.S. cruise ships to dock in Cuba and a U.S. hotelier to operate in the country. On Monday the first commercial flight from the U.S. landed in Havana, part of plans for some 110 daily flights from the U.S to Cuba.

"Unwinding [the new policy] is not as easy as just the stroke of a pen because there are consequences for doing that," Mr. Earnest said. "There will be an economic impact in the United States and in Cuba for unraveling that policy."

A senior administration official said the U.S. policy toward Cuba before December 2014, when the two countries announced plans to re-establish relations, "isolated the U.S. in its own hemisphere."

"The new policy renewed our leadership in the Americas and brought with it a new spirit of cooperation among the U.S. and its neighbors," the official said. "Any reversal or neglect of this position could absolutely lead to an erosion of our leadership in the region and a return to isolation among our neighbors."

Messrs. Obama and Trump discussed Cuba in their 90-minute meeting at the White House on Nov. 10 and during a 45-minute phone call on Saturday. Some administration officials believe Mr. Trump, a New York businessman, ultimately won't reverse Mr. Obama's policy.

The U.S. trade embargo on Cuba has complicated Washington's relations with the hemisphere for decades. Like Arabic-speaking countries in the Middle East, Latin America is largely tied together through language and culture, compelling countries to often try to show solidarity with one another. A history of U.S. interference in the region has also long engendered a shared resentment.

Mr. Trump has already caused deep unease in Latin America. A cornerstone of his campaign was a pledge to build a border wall with Mexico and force it to pay—rhetoric many in the region saw as humiliating. Officials in Mexico and Central Americans countries have also expressed worries that potential deportations of illegal immigrants would strain local economies.

Mr. Trump has also pledged to revisit the North American Free Trade Agreement, which ties together Mexico, Canada and the U.S., and withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which involves Mexico, Peru and Chile. Already, Peru and Chile have started to look to China for further trade deals.

"It looks like Latin America is turning into a favorite punching bag for Trump's tweets, and here we can include Mexicans, the wall, and now Cuba," said Matthew Taylor, a Latin America expert at American University in Washington.

Not everyone opposes Mr. Trump's tactic of trying to wring more concessions from the Cuban government, however. Guillermo Fariñas, a Cuban dissident who was critical of President Obama's Cuban policy, said he supports Mr. Trump's attempt to pressure Havana to stop its crackdown on opponents and become democratic.

"I think President-elect Trump is on the right path in the sense that the Cuban government should provide more concessions like the U.S. government did," he said. "The Cuban government has not given any concessions."

Supporters of easing ties say the longstanding U.S. embargo against Cuba failed to force the island's totalitarian government to yield and even gave it a ready excuse for its failures.

Obama administration officials have said their hope is that increasing contact between the countries will eventually create pressure for democratic change, but no one expects an opening soon.

"The history of the relationship has been that the more the U.S. demands, the more Cuba closes down," said Eric Olsen, Associate Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

The detente has proved popular in the region. In 2016, 74% of Latin Americans said they had a good or very good opinion of the U.S. under Mr. Obama, up from 58% in 2008 at the end of George W. Bush's administration, according to Chilean-based pollster Latinobarómetro.

By contrast, only 8% of people surveyed in Latin America said they wanted Mr. Trump to become president, according to an October global survey released in October by WIN and Gallup International.

For ordinary Cubans, the opening between their government and the U.S. has provided a glimmer of hope that someday things here would change. And increased travel and remittances have been a godsend to many struggling Cubans.

"If Obama's promises are stopped, it would hurt us a lot. They gave us hope that we could travel, have jobs that pay decent wages and lead a better life," said Deymar Rodríguez, a 24-year-old schoolteacher.

—Carol E. Lee in Washington contributed to this article.

WTO Rules Against Tax Break for Boeing’s 777X Jet – Fortune

The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled on Monday a tax break from Washington state to help Boeing develop its new 777X jetliner was a prohibited subsidy, in a setback for the U.S. plane maker as it eyes victory in a parallel case against Airbus.

The WTO said the subsidy came in the form of a renewed cut in Washington state's main business tax for aerospace agreed in 2013, when Boeing was considering where to base assembly of the latest member of its long-haul jet family.

It is the third swathe of taxpayer support for Boeing or its European rival Airbus faulted by the WTO in a record transatlantic trade spat dating back 12 years, and involving mutual accusations of tens of billions of dollars of aid.

The ruling, which can be appealed by either side, comes as the United States ponders the first sanctions against the European Union in more than a decade over earlier subsidy rulings against Airbus.

The WTO did not give a value for the banned aid in its latest ruling, but the EU estimated it at $ 5.7 billion out of an $ 8.7 billion tax package in Washington, where most Boeing factories are based.

Airbus said the measures had cost it $ 50 billion in sales.

Boeing said the aid in question would only kick in from 2020 and would be worth $ 50 million a year, a fraction of the total amount at stake in the world's largest trade dispute.

The WTO backed EU claims that another six measures provided subsidies to Boeing, but rejected European arguments that these fell into the most toxic category being reviewed by its panel.

It urged the United States to withdraw the prohibited subsidy in 90 days, but did not say how this should be done, prompting immediate discord between U.S. and European representatives about how much the planemaker would have to give up and when.

Seizing on previous U.S. statements that Airbus subsidies originally deemed prohibited – but later watered down on appeal – should be repaid to taxpayers, European sources said Boeing would now have to forego billions of dollars in aid.

They also zeroed in on "program accounting" methods used by Boeing, which they said had already allowed it to factor in the future support for the 777X even before money had been received.

Under the same system, Boeing would have to adjust its accounts sooner rather than later to reflect new risks resulting from the WTO finding, they argued, in what would be the first direct impact of the marathon case on investors.

Confident on Appeal

The European Commission urged the United States to remove the prohibited aid "without delay."

Boeing officials and lawyers, however, played down the prospect of having to pay back any support, noting there was no money to discuss until deliveries of the new jet start in 2020.

They said they were confident the ruling would be overturned on appeal and insisted the tax breaks were dwarfed by $ 22 billion in subsidized loans by European governments to Airbus, adding these could spark U.S. retaliation within a year.

Investors, too, seemed skeptical about the prospect of any near-term financial hit, sending Boeingshares down just 0.3 percent, in line with the market.

"We expect little material impact on either Boeing or Airbus from WTO rulings," Bernstein analysts said in a note.

On paper, the ruling is however seen as a step backwards for the United States because the WTO had earlier ruled that a previous version of the same tax breaks had fallen into a weaker category of subsidies, which the Geneva watchdog treats less harshly.

Under WTO rules, subsidies that are explicitly tied to exports or, in this case, the use of local content are banned.

European officials argue Boeing fell into a prohibited subsidy trap of its own making when state lawmakers insisted on locking Boeing into Washington more clearly than before, after Boeingaccepted earlier tax breaks only to move work elsewhere.

In 2013, Washington lawmakers extended the tax breaks from 2024 to 2040 but said they would end support for any new version of jet if its body or wings were assembled outside the state.

OPEC makes last-ditch bid to save oil deal – CNBC

In September, OPEC, which accounts for a third of global oil production, agreed to cap output at around 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day versus the current 33.64 million bpd to prop up oil prices, which have more than halved since mid-2014.

The meeting on Nov. 30 was expected to rubber-stamp that deal, with Russia and some other non-OPEC producers such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan also contributing.

But doubts emerged in recent weeks as OPEC’s No.2 and 3 producers, Iraq and Iran, expressed reservations about the mechanics of output reductions and Saudi Arabia voiced concern about Russia’s willingness to cut.

On Friday, OPEC canceled an experts meeting with non-OPEC producers scheduled for Nov. 28 after Saudi Arabia said the organization needed to sort out its differences first.

Over the weekend, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said oil markets would rebalance even without an output-limiting pact. That contrasted with his previous statements, in which he had said Riyadh was keen for a deal.

‘Nobody knows’

Doubts about OPEC’s ability to deliver promised cuts sent Brent crude down 2 percent initially on Monday to less than $ 47 per barrel, though prices later recovered. [O/R]

Some analysts including Morgan Stanley and Macquarie have said oil prices will correct sharply if OPEC fails to reach a deal, potentially going as low as $ 35 per barrel.

As OPEC experts turned up at the group’s headquarters on Monday, one delegate who had previously stated that a deal would be done, said this time: “I am not sure.”

Another delegate, when asked about the prospects for a deal, said: “Nobody knows yet.”

OPEC ministers started arriving in Vienna on Sunday for the group’s regular twice-yearly talks but Saudi Arabia’s Falih was not expected to land before Tuesday evening, leaving little time for traditional pre-meeting discussions with peers.

Iranian semi-official news agency MEHR published an editorial on Sunday accusing Saudi Arabia of declaring a new “war on oil prices” and reneging on its promises to limit output.

The tone contrasted with Iranian news agencies’ more upbeat coverage of OPEC’s informal meeting in September in Algeria, when the initial deal was reached.

Oil tumbles as output cut looks elusive; dollar sinks – Reuters

By Hideyuki Sano | TOKYO

TOKYO The dollar and U.S. bond yields fell on Monday as investors reversed a “Trumpflation” trade that has gripped markets since the U.S. elections, after oil prices slid on fears that producer countries meeting this week could fail to agree an output cut.

Though Brent crude futures last traded at $ 47.02 per barrel LCOc1, almost flat on the day, prices had been down by as much as 2.0 percent in early Asian trade, following on from a 3.6 percent fall on Friday as doubts arose over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reach a deal later this week.

Prospects of reduced upward pressure on inflation from oil prices, prompted investors to temper expectations for rises in U.S. interest rates, bring down treasury yields and the dollar.

That gave some relief to Asian shares, which had underperformed on worries about capital flight to higher-yielding U.S markets in the weeks since Donald Trump’s Nov.8 election win.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6 percent, led by gains in Hong Kong .HSI and Taiwan .TWII.

In contrast, U.S. stock futures ESc1 slipped 0.2 percent after their stellar performance this month on hopes President-elect Trump’s policy of fiscal spending, deregulation and protection of domestic industries will boost U.S. inflation and benefit Corporate America.

Japan’s Nikkei average .N225, which had performed even better than Wall Street thanks to the yen’s fall, also lost its lustre, falling 0.3 percent.

“It will be scary to think markets may fully reverse their moves since the elections, changing their mind that Trump’s policy may not be so good after all,” said Bart Wakabayashi, head of Hong Kong FX sales at State Street Global Markets.

Wall Street’s four main indexes .DJI .SPX .IXIC all hit record highs last week, a feat last achieved in 1999.

Yet some investors question whether the market may have got carried away with optimism on Trump’s policy, given the uncertainty on the political neophyte’s presidency, including on how closely he can work together with the Congress.

But it was doubts about inflationary expectations, due to languishing oil prices that gave investors a more immediate reason to have second thoughts.

Saudi Arabia said on Friday it will not attend talks on Monday with non-OPEC producers to discuss supply cuts.

“Oil prices have fallen considerably on worries about the deal. That would pressure energy shares, and could hit the entire stock markets. Given their rally in recent days, it’s no surprise to see some adjustment,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that he believed the oil market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene, and that keeping output at current levels could therefore be justified.

His comments raised worries that a preliminary agreement reached in September for OPEC to reduce output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day may fall apart when OPEC ministers meet on Wednesday to finalize that deal.

OPEC also wants non-OPEC producers such as Russia to support the intervention by curbing their output.

As lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure, they sapped momentum for a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and a rally in the dollar, the market’s favorite play since the U.S. election.

The dollar sank more than 1.6 percent against the yen to as low as 111.355 yen JPY=, down sharply from its eight-month high of 113.90 set just on Friday. It last traded at 111.90 yen.

“As long as the dollar holds above 111-111.50 yen, I do not judge the (dollar’s rising) trend has changed,” said Koichi Yoshikawa, executive director of financial markets at Standard Chartered in Tokyo.

The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies .DXY =USD stood at 100.88, slipping 0.6 percent on day and off its 13 1/2-year high of 102.05 touched on Thursday.

The dollar shed more than 0.5 percent against many emerging market currencies, including the Mexico peso MXP=, the biggest loser after Trump’s election victory, the South African rand ZAR= and the Turkish lira TRY=.

The euro EUR= gained 0.8 percent to $ 1.0655, extending its rebound from its near one-year low of $ 1.0518 touched on Thursday.

The single currency has so far shown limited reaction to the French conservatives’ presidential primaries on Sunday.

Former Prime Minister Francois Fillon, a socially conservative free-marketeer, won the run-off, setting up a likely showdown next year with far-right leader Marine Le Pen that the pollsters expect him to win.

Gold XAU= bounced back to $ 1,192.0 per ounce from Friday’s low $ 1,171.5, which was its lowest level since early February.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR dropped almost 4 basis points to 2.330 percent, off its 16-month high of 2.417 percent touched on Thursday.

(Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)