Activity in Britain's factories unexpectedly jumped in October, offering hope for the industry after a grim few months.
The Markit/CIPS survey of purchasing managers rose to a 16-month high of 55.5, driven by a strong domestic market. A reading above 50 indicates that activity is increasing.
Rob Dobson, senior economist at survey compilers Markit, said the strong reading — the City consensus was for 51.3 — provided a "tentative suggestion that the manufacturers are pulling out of their recent funk".
Sterling hit a 10-week high on a trade-weighted basis on the hint that the sector could be showing signs of life.
But with details of the survey suggesting the upturn was mainly confined to the largest manufacturers, most economists were cautious about calling a recovery just yet.
Buffeted by the strength of sterling and weak demand in key export markets, manufacturing has experienced a torrid second half of the year and the industry still remains smaller than it was before the recession.
Last week the Office for National Statistics estimated the sector contracted by 0.3 per cent quarter on quarter from July to September — the third successive quarterly decline.
Markit said its survey was consistent with quarterly growth of 1 per cent — a vast improvement.
Lee Hopley, chief economist at industry body EEF, said the bounce was "remarkable" and a "significant departure" from the declines in production reported by official data.
"This is the first positive survey for manufacturing for some months and if this translates into an improvement in the official data, the sector could still post growth this year."
Companies also reported a pick-up in orders from the Middle East and the US, offering tentative signs that exports could be recovering.
Manufacturing employment rose for the 30th successive month as firms reporting an improvement in new orders and efforts to clear backlogs of work encouraged firms to raise capacity.
David Noble, group CEO at the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, said that if the improvement continued there would be "more conviction that UK economic recovery is at last ongoing and sustainable".
Most analysts, however, remained cautious. Kallum Pickering, senior UK economist at Berenberg bank, said it was "important to see this trend both established over an extended period and reflected in the underlying data before claiming victory".
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, was even more blunt: "Take with a pinch of salt."
Martin Beck, senior economist at the EY Item Club forecasting group, said the data would "provide some comfort" for policymakers at the Bank of England who are meeting this week. Most indicators had been pointing to a loss of momentum over the summer, with overall GDP growth slowing to 0.5 per cent.
Mark Carney, BoE governor, said last weekend that while the UK should prepare for a rate rise, it was not a certainty.
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