Unemployment rates for the First Coast and Florida fell in October compared to September as the string of monthly positive economic indicators keep rolling as the end of the year approaches.
For the first time since April 2008, the First Coast metropolitan statistical area saw the unemployment rate drop below 5 percent.
Paul Mason, economist with the University of North Florida said the jobless figure fell to 4.9 percent in October, down from 5.1 percent in September after seasonal adjustments. That figure represents the combined unemployment rates of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Clay and Baker counties.
"The declining unemployment rate is a positive indicator of continuing [economic] growth," Mason said.
Florida's jobless figure with seasonal adjustments also decreased, dropping from 5.2 percent in September to 5.1 percent in October. That figure is slightly above the national unemployment rate, which went from 5.1 percent to 5 percent in October.
Gov. Rick Scott was upbeat about Friday's economic news. In a statement, he gave some credit for job growth to Jacksonville.
"The Jacksonville area has continued to add jobs and the unemployment rate continues to drop because of our priority to cut taxes and diversify our economy," Scott said.
While the unemployment rate went down on the First Coast, the actual claims for first-time unemployment benefits increased slightly from 2,409 in September to 2,504 in October. In addition, the number of workers in the labor force actually decreased from 720,378in September to 714,736 in October.
Mason said first-time unemployment filings and workforce decreases are statistical foibles compared to the unemployment rate.
"Well, it reflects a positive attribute in the business cycle. We're moving toward less unemployment, which is a good thing," Mason said. "But, as many have cautioned, me included, part of the reason why our unemployment rate is falling is because people are leaving the work force."
Despite the conflicting numbers, Mason said there's reason for optimism because of the consistent trend of declining unemployment on the First Coast for most of this year.
"If people are leaving the workforce and are supporting themselves outside of the workforce, that's not as bad as the alternative. … Also, it's understood that a significant portion of people leaving the workforce are retiring."
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Duval County — the First Coast's largest metropolitan employer — showed jobless levels remain higher than state and national rates. Jacksonville had a 5.71 percent jobless figure in September and that number dropped to 5.35 percent in October after seasonal adjustments.
Candace Moody, vice president of communications at CareerSource Northeast Florida, an employment assistance organization, said the demand for help from her agency reflects the decreasing jobless figure.
"Demand for our services has gone down dramatically and we consider that a good thing," Moody said. "I think there are two kind of job seekers: One that is optimistic and knows a job is coming soon and the other has significant challenges to employment."
Moody said there will always be some job seekers, those for example who have a criminal background, whowill always face employment hurdles. But there are several other kinds of job areas that are improving such as retail, service industry and hospitality that offer a reasonable entry into the job market.
"Those are providing first-time jobs for people… during the height of the recession, we didn't even have those jobs," Moody said.
OTHER INDICATORS
Other economic indicators showed the Consumer Price Index also fell for the First Coast going from 116.84 in September to 116.75 in October. Mason said if the CPI continues on the pace for the remaining weeks of 2015, the annual rate of inflation will increase 1.79 percent.
"Historically, what we're seeing is similar to the last two or three years, at least," Mason said. "Early in the year, we see some significant inflation and then as we move toward the end of the year, some of those price increases are being given back. So, we're seeing declines in the rate of inflation."
The CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Mason's first CPI figures were collected in December 2001, when the rate was 100. The monthly CPI number is the comparison to that rate.
There were only four economic categories that saw significant changes from September to October, Mason said. Residential rental rates went up 4.2 percent and alcoholic beverage prices increased 7.3 percent. Meanwhile household operation costs fell 8.3 percent and vehicle maintenance and repair prices fell 4.3 percent.
Drew Dixon: (904) 359-4098
No comments:
Post a Comment