Fed officials, at their meeting in late January, discussed adding a new feature to their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. There was “a range of views” expressed about the idea of adding “fan charts” that “would illustrate the uncertainty that attends participants' macroeconomic projections,” according to the minutes of the Jan. 26-27 FOMC meeting. That would be a twist on the SEP’s current presentation, which includes the “dot plot” of fed-funds rate predictions.
The January discussion didn’t sound like it reached a definite decision to include fan charts in the March SEP, with the minutes saying that Chairwoman Janet Yellen “noted that further work might be helpful to address participants' concerns and asked the subcommittee on communications to continue to investigate the possibility of incorporating a graphical depiction of uncertainty into the SEP.” But it seems significant that the Fed has publicly floated the idea.
Potential supporters include governor Jerome Powell, who in a Feb. 26 speech said that “fan charts could help emphasize that the economic outlook is uncertain, and that consequently there is considerable uncertainty around the path of policy.” Even if they don’t appear in the projections coming out at 2 p.m. EDT, don’t be surprised if some version starts appearing in the not-too-distant future.
No comments:
Post a Comment