Friday, August 12, 2016

Stocks Appear Poised for Gains After Oil Rebound – Wall Street Journal

Stocks looked set to inch past record highs on Friday, supported by a recent rebound in oil prices and easy monetary policy from the world's central banks.

Futures pointed to a 0.1% opening gain for the S&P 500, after all three major U.S. indexes notched new all-time highs on Thursday for the first time since 1999.

European stocks steadied at their best levels since May, with London's FTSE 100 index on track for its highest close since 2015.

That came after Asian markets followed Wall Street higher, with stocks in Japan and Shanghai up over 1%.

Recent gains in the oil price have supported equity markets. Brent crude oil held on to Thursday's 4.5% gain to trade flat at $ 46.02 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said it would work with other oil producers to stabilize prices.

Investors have also taken heart in better-than-expected economic data in recent sessions, including strong readings on the U.S. labor market. Data Friday showed Germany's economy grew better than expected in the second quarter, while the European Union's statistics agency confirmed the 19-country economy grew 0.3% in April through June.

At the same time, central banks in the U.K., Japan, Australia and New Zealand have recently signaled easier monetary policy, and investors currently see even one rate rise from the Federal Reserve this year as a tossup.

This has left stocks from emerging markets to the S&P 500 on an uptrend recently, even as global developed market bond yields have notched record lows.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last down slightly at 1.546%.

"There is a disconnect between what stocks tell you about the economy, where cyclical sectors and indexes are rallying, and what bonds tell you, where yield curves are flattening and the expectation is growth and inflation prospects remain very suppressed," said Stephen Macklow-Smith, head of European equity strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

For stocks to move higher from here, the key will be earnings growth, he said.

The S&P 500 isn’t predicted to report growth in earnings growth until the fourth quarter of the year, according to FactSet.

Some say the health of the world's second largest economy will also be key. On Friday, gains in European energy and mining companies were offset slightly by fresh concerns about Chinese growth.

Chinese economic data missed expectations and pointed to a slowdown last month across retail sales, factory output and investment.

"It is early days yet and recent floods may be impacting, but so far the data suggests that Chinese growth in the current quarter may be edging down," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital.

In currencies, the dollar inched up 0.3% against the yen to ¥102.2020, while the euro inched up 0.2% against the dollar to $ 1.1153.

Gold was down 0.5% at $ 1,343 an ounce, little changed on the week.

Write to Riva Gold at riva.gold@wsj.com

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