Friday, January 20, 2017

China’s Economy Grows Strongly, Yet Central Bank Eases Policy – New York Times

The Chinese government appears to have delayed an economic reckoning, but at a high cost. The central bank and state-owned banks shoveled trillions of renminbi into a surge of credit, putting aside longstanding worries about a deeply indebted corporate sector and signs of a real estate bubble. The government borrowed and spent heavily, continuing oversize projects like the construction of world-class highways and high-speed rail lines to cities that are increasingly remote from the main hubs of economic activity near the coast.

But Ning Jizhe, the commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, dismissed concerns about rising debt.

"I don't think this worry is necessary," he said at a news conference.

Hours after the data release, the central bank said on its official Weibo microblog account that it was providing temporary help to "several large commercial banks" that have been distributing large sums of cash ahead of China's Lunar New Year celebrations, which begin at the end of next week.

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A Uniqlo store at a mall in Beijing. Much of China's online consumer spending growth last year came at the expense of brick-and-mortar stores. Credit Wang Zhao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Consumers Keep Spending

Chinese and foreign economists generally agree that the best hope for the country's long-term economic health is for the current emphasis on debt and investment to give way to greater consumer spending. Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending climbed 9.6 percent last year, led by blistering growth in online retail sales of 26.2 percent. But as in other countries, including the United States, much of that growth has come at the expense of brick-and-mortar stores and malls.

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A construction site in Beijing last month. After state-owned banks were told to step up mortgage lending last year, commercial building sales rose 34.8 percent, and residential sales climbed 36 percent. Credit Thomas Peter/Reuters

Real Estate Prices Surge

When Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China's central bank, said at a news conference in Shanghai last February that the answer to China's immediate economic troubles lay in more mortgages, few paid close attention. Chinese officials previously expressed concern that real estate prices were already too high, hurting affordability and exposing the economy to significant risks if prices tumbled.

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Coils of steel at a factory in Dalian, Liaoning Province. Concerns have been raised about the quality of Chinese economic data, but many economists say last year's growth appears to have been real. Credit China Daily/Reuters

But after Mr. Zhou's remarks, state-owned banks were instructed to step up mortgage lending, and the results were spectacular. Sales of commercial buildings rose 34.8 percent, and residential sales climbed 36 percent as prices leapt higher and higher. The steel, cement and glass industries — all suffering from overcapacity in recent years — benefited as they supplied builders, and electricity production to power those factories rose. Municipal governments in Shanghai and elsewhere began imposing administrative controls this winter to limit further real estate price increases.

Debt Piles Up

More mortgages were part of a big expansion in the overall credit moving through the Chinese economy. To achieve its 6.7 percent growth last year, the Chinese government allowed total credit to rise at nearly two and half times that pace, according to a calculation by Louis Kuijs, an economist at Oxford Economics. Credit used to grow at the same pace as the economy, but debt has been accumulating faster than the economy's output since the global financial crisis.

The central bank, the People's Bank of China, said on Friday afternoon that it was providing liquidity assistance for 28 days to several large commercial banks. It did not identify the banks. The central bank also did not provide details except to say that it was using a market mechanism to make sure the extra money entered the country's financial system.

The People's Bank of China did not respond to requests for clarification. Stock markets were up on Friday in China, and short-term interest rates were only slightly higher — two signs that while money may be fairly tight in China ahead of the holidays, any difficulty has not yet become severe enough to alarm investors.

What's in a Number?

Many concerns have been raised about the quality of Chinese economic data. Western economists have suggested that Chinese government statisticians underestimate growth in boom years and overestimate growth during busts to present a smoother overall picture of the Chinese economy. Worries about data quality increased after the state-run People's Daily quoted Chen Qiufa, the governor of the northeastern province of Liaoning, as saying on Tuesday that local governments had inflated growth data from 2011 to 2014.

But many economists say last year's growth appears to have been real — although bringing additional debt that could burden the economy for years to come. Mr. Ning insisted on Friday morning that national economic data was reliable, and he added that if local officials were caught fabricating data, "we will show no leniency."

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