Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Greece, Missing IMF Payment, Is Called Effectively in Default – New York Times

Photo
Protesters supporting the euro and hoping Greece stays in the European Union were outside the Parliament building in Athens. Credit Aris Messinis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

ATHENS — Greece missed a crucial debt payment to the International Monetary Fund, the fund said early Wednesday, deepening a crisis that has haunted world leaders and financial markets over the past week.

The development came as Greece's European creditors each rejected an 11th-hour attempt by Athens to extend the country's international bailout program.

Greece is not technically in default, but missing the payment of 1.5 billion euros, or about $ 1.7 billion, is yet another warning that the country will probably be unable to meet its other obligations in coming weeks, to its bond holders and to the European Central Bank. That might make the bank, one of the country's chief creditors, less willing to continue emergency loans that have been propping up Greek banks for the past several months.

By declaring Greece in arrears, the I.M.F. avoided using the term "default." Credit rating agencies also will not consider Greece in default based on missing the I.M.F. payment, because the I.M.F. is not considered a commercial borrower.

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Greece's Debt Crisis Explained

The weak link in the 19-nation eurozone is struggling to tame its debt. On Tuesday, Greece missed an important payment to the International Monetary Fund.

But Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, said late Tuesday night that Greece was effectively in default and could face even tougher conditions for a new aid package.

"I think the fact of the matter is that Greece is in default or will be in default tomorrow morning on the I.M.F. and also, I believe, on a loan to their own central bank," Mr. Dijsselbloem told CNBC. "But they will be in default, and I don't think I can alter that in the short term."

Greece now joins the roster of countries — including some of the poorest and worst governed — that have missed payments to the I.M.F. Also on that list: Zimbabwe, Sudan and Somalia.

With just hours to go before the deadline for the payment, the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, had asked the other nations that use the euro to provide another bailout that could also buy Athens time to renegotiate its crippling debt load.

Finance ministers of those countries discussed the proposal on Tuesday night and left open the possibility that Greece could eventually win a new aid package, but dashed any hopes Athens had for immediate action. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany had said earlier in the day that no deal with Mr. Tsipras's government could be negotiated until after a referendum on Sunday in which Greeks will be asked to accept or reject an offer made last week by Greece's creditors.

Greece's missed payment was the largest in the fund's history. Sudan still owes about $ 1.4 billion from loans acquired in the 1980s, according to the fund.

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Newspapers were on display in central Athens on Tuesday, the deadline for Greece to make a debt payment of 1.5 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund. Credit Aris Messinis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Other countries that have fallen behind more recently include Iraq, Bosnia and Afghanistan. All three eventually settled their obligations to the fund.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said delinquency would put Greece in ignoble company.

"They are joining countries we would normally regard as failed and failing states," Mr. Kirkegaard said. "The symbolism is quite dramatic."

The I.M.F. declined to comment on whether it expected Greece to make the payment it just missed sometime in the future.

The fund has not granted a request to delay repayment since the 1980s, making it highly unlikely that Greece would be given different treatment. The change of policy came about because the fund determined that giving extensions to countries that fell into arrears did not produce benefits for those countries.

The fund would still take into account the request by the Athens government for an extension. But any final decision is likely to take several weeks.

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A pro-European protester at a rally in Athens on Tuesday. Credit Marko Djurica/Reuters

Apostolos Gkoutzinis, a partner in London with the New York law firm Shearman & Sterling and the head of the firm's European capital markets group, said Greece would eventually have to make good on the missed payment in order to avoid the risk that the I.M.F. would make no further loans.

"Without the I.M.F., the Greeks really have no safety net," Mr. Gkoutzinis said. "Without that backstop, Greece might not even be able to import essential goods like medicines and petrol in the future."

On Tuesday, Mr. Tsipras had requested more aid from the European bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, but a new program would require a number of procedural steps and raise significant new challenges for Greece.

"Any talks about a future program will have to be discussed in the Eurogroup" and "will have to be assessed by the institutions," Mr. Dijsselbloem said Tuesday night.

He was referring to the three institutions — the European Commission, the I.M.F. and the Central Bank — that oversee Greece's compliance with the terms of the two giant bailouts it has been granted in the last five years.

The confirmation of the missed payment came after top European Union officials outlined another offer to Mr. Tsipras on Monday night, which suggested that both sides were interested in defusing a crisis that has left Greece financially crippled and at risk of becoming the first nation to leave the euro currency union.

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Official: Greece Will Miss Debt Payment

The Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, told reporters on Tuesday that Greece will not pay the International Monetary Fund on time.

Photo by Daniel Ochoa De Olza/Associated Press.

France and the United States, among other nations, have been pressing for a compromise that could avert the risk of Greece's problems spreading to other countries and reduce the strain on European unity.

With the nation's banks shut down and Mr. Tsipras's government confronting intensifying financial strains, his office released a statement Tuesday afternoon confirming that the government had proposed a new bailout from a different pot of money than the one drawn on so far.

The statement was vague, noting that Greece had applied for a two-year agreement for new loans from the European Stability Mechanism. The statement said that the aim was to help the country meet its debt obligations and that Greece's intention was to remain in the eurozone.

The lack of specificity in the statement made it unclear whether it was just a repackaging of previous requests — already rejected in Brussels, the base of the European Union — or if the prime minister had offered new proposals.

Hours earlier, Mr. Tsipras spoke by telephone with Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission; Mario Draghi, the chief of the European Central Bank; and Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament. And in the Greek government, competing voices were debating how to proceed, analysts said.

"What is certain is that there is a lot of pressure inside the government," said George Pagoulatos, a political analyst in Athens. "There are some people there who realize the huge risks in the path the country is on."

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Portraits From Greece as It Endures a Crisis

From a small island to the capital in Athens, here is a glimpse into some of the lives of Greeks as their country struggles to repay billions in debt.

Negotiations have been going on for months, as Greece sought to unlock a frozen €7.2 billion bailout payment and complete a new comprehensive agreement that would include more financing and could come with major debt relief. But the talks broke down last weekend, after Mr. Tsipras unexpectedly announced that a "yes or no" national referendum would be held so voters could decide whether to accept the terms proposed by creditors, which he found onerous.

Mr. Tsipras has called on voters to choose "no" and has denied that the referendum is the equivalent of choosing whether to leave Europe's currency union, something that most Greeks do not want to do.

Pro-Europe demonstrators massed in Syntagma Square in Athens outside Parliament on Tuesday night despite drizzle, thunder and lightning. As speakers began shouting, "Vote yes to Europe," the demonstrators shouted and blew whistles. Some waved Greek flags, others red flags bearing the words "YES to Europe. YES to the Euro."

Alexandros Limniatis, 67, who retired from the telephone company OTE, said he had been frustrated with the governing Syriza party since it took office this year. But the last straw, he said, came on Monday, the first day of capital controls, when he found himself waiting in a long A.T.M. line to receive his daily cash allotment of €60.

"I went home to my grandchildren and I thought, 'What Greece am I leaving them?' " he said, twisting the strand of worry beads he had taken up since the doctor told him to quit smoking. "So I made up my mind to come here to demand hope. Greece in Europe. A European Greece."

Initially, European officials were furious about Mr. Tsipras's decision to call a referendum, interpreting the move as brinkmanship in the negotiations. But on Monday, several European leaders, notably Mr. Juncker, began openly lobbying Greek voters to choose "yes."

Some analysts said European officials were hoping that a "yes" vote on Sunday would force Mr. Tsipras to resign, a development that would be welcome to the creditors after months of bitter clashes with Athens.

Some European officials have been signaling that they would like to use the coming days to try to persuade Mr. Tsipras to stop pushing for a "no" vote — an unlikely prospect given the consistent position Mr. Tsipras has taken against the terms offered so far by the creditors.

Greece debt crisis: Athens seeks new last-minute deal – BBC News

Greece debt crisis: Eurozone rejects bailout appeal

  • 30 June 2015
  • From the section Europe

Eurozone finance ministers have rejected a Greek government call to extend its bailout, just hours before it expires and a €1.6bn (£1.1bn) payment to the IMF falls due.

The move came after ministers held an emergency conference call.

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras had requested a short extension to Greece’s current bailout, and a two-year rescue deal.

If it fails to repay the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Greece could risk leaving the euro.

Greece has also asked the IMF for more time, according to Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis.

Eurogroup chairman and Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said it would be “crazy” to extend the Greek bailout beyond its midnight expiration as Athens was refusing accept the European proposals on the table.

Speaking after the conference call, he added that a Greek request for a new €29.1bn European aid programme would be considered later.

The European Commission – one of Greece’s “troika” of creditors along with the IMF and the eurozone’s European Central Bank – wants Athens to raise taxes and cut welfare spending to meet its debt obligations.

Amid fears of a Greek default on its huge public debt of €323bn, people have queued at cash machines. Withdrawals are capped at just €60 a day.

Greek banks did not open this week after talks between Greece and its creditors broke down. However, up to 1,000 bank branches will re-open from Wednesday to allow pensioners – many of whom do not use bank cards – to withdraw up to €120.

Analysis: By Andrew Walker, economics correspondent

The sky will not fall in when the deadline for Greece to repay to the IMF passes, but the tension will rise.

If a payment to the IMF is missed and managing director Christine Lagarde informs her board, the eurozone would have the right under the loan agreements to demand immediate repayment of more than €180bn they have already lent Greece, together with interest.

Failure to repay the IMF comes under a list of “events of default” set out in the legal documents. IMF officials say Ms Lagarde intends to inform the board promptly if Greece doesn’t pay on time.

Of course, in practice, the rest of the eurozone won’t demand the money back and send in the bailiffs. Athens couldn’t possibly repay and in any event they want to keep talking, hoping they can keep Greece in the eurozone. But the fact that they would have the option is a sign of how close Greece is getting to the brink.

The main slogan of Tuesday’s protest was: “We’re staying in Europe”

On Tuesday evening, thousands of pro-EU protesters braved stormy weather and gathered outside the Greek parliament in Athens to urge a “yes” vote in a referendum on Sunday over whether the country should accept its creditors’ proposals.

It follows a similar demonstration by those advocating a “no” vote – the path preferred by Mr Tsipras – on Monday.

EU leaders have warned that a no vote rejecting creditors’ proposals would mean Greece leaving the eurozone – though Mr Tsipras says he does not want this to happen.

The ECB is believed to have disbursed virtually all of its emergency funds for Greece, amounting to €89bn (£63bn).

What will happen next?

01:00 Greek time Wednesday (22:00 GMT): Greece’s €1.6bn repayment to the IMF is due.

5 July – the referendum on creditors’ proposals, and many say Greece’s membership of the eurozone, takes place

20 July – Greece must redeem €3.46bn of bonds held by the European Central Bank. If it fails to do so, the ECB can cut off Greece’s access to emergency loans.

Days of turmoil

Queues were forming in front of some ATMs in Athens – but customers will only be allowed to take out €60 per day
  • Friday evening: Greek prime minister calls referendum on terms of new bailout deal, asks for extension of existing bailout
  • Saturday afternoon: Eurozone finance ministers refuse to extend existing bailout beyond Tuesday
  • Saturday evening: Greek parliament backs referendum on creditors’ proposals for 5 July
  • Sunday afternoon: ECB says it is not increasing emergency assistance to Greece
  • Sunday evening: Greek government says banks to be closed for the week and cash withdrawals restricted to €60
  • Monday evening: Greek prime minister appeals to Greeks to reject the creditors’ proposals, saying this will give Greece “more powerful weapons” in negotiations; he also hints he will resign if the result of the referendum is a “yes” vote

Is Grexit nearer?

Katya Adler: A European divide

Existential threat to euro from Greek exit

A guide to the key numbers and issues

Lenders’ proposals – key sticking points

  • VAT (sales tax): A new system to come in from 1 July, with three rates, aimed at boosting annual revenue by 1% of total output (GDP)
  • Most goods to be taxed at top rate of 23%, including restaurants and catering and processed foods
  • Reduced rate of 13% for basic food, electricity, hotels and water
  • Super-reduced rate of 6% for medicines, books and theatre
  • End exemptions and eliminate VAT discounts for Greek islands
  • Create strong disincentives to early retirement
  • Move retirement age up to 67 by 2022
  • End Ekas “solidarity” top-up grant that some 200,000 poorer pensioners get – immediate Ekas cut for wealthiest 20% of recipients, and cut completely by 2020
  • Pensioners’ healthcare contributions to rise to 6%, from 4%

Source: European Commission document, 26 Jun 15 (pdf)

Greek debt jargon explained

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