Saturday, June 27, 2015

Greece Bailout: Eurozone Ministers to Explore ‘Plan B’ – Wall Street Journal

BRUSSELS—Eurozone finance ministers will discuss alternatives to more bailout aid for Greece at a meeting Saturday, European officials said, after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced he would hold a referendum on the terms of new aid.

The first step in what has commonly been referred to as "Plan B" among Greece's creditors would likely be the introduction of capital controls to avoid a run on the country's banks, these officials said.

"You've seen Cyprus," said one official, referring to another eurozone country that limited the withdrawal of cash and transfer on funds abroad in 2013 amid a big banking crisis.

But in contrast to Cyprus, which implemented capital controls as part of a €10 billion bailout package from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, the financial situation of the Greek government is much more precarious.

The eurozone portion of Greece's €245 billion rescue package runs out on Tuesday, the same day the government has to pay €1.55 billion to the IMF. Failure to pay the IMF, along with heightened uncertainty over the country's financial future, could lead to wider chaos that could end up forcing Greece out of the eurozone.

Mr. Tsipras said that he would ask for a short extension of the existing rescue program to carry his country through the July 5 vote. But European officials said such an extension, which requires a unanimous decision by all 19 eurozone finance ministers as well as parliamentary votes in some countries, may be hard to get.

"I really can't see 18 [member states] agreeing to that," said one official.

Mr. Tsipras said the Greek people should get a say on whether they want to swallow more budget cuts and policy overhauls—including pension reductions and increases to sales taxes—in return for sustained aid.

But some officials raised questions of whether the existing aid proposal would still be an option for Greece, even if the referendum turns out in favor of more bailout aid. Comments from several ministers that they would campaign against a deal has further undermined confidence among Greece's creditors that the government would actually implement the measures attached to the bailout.

"Greeks will vote on an offer that is no longer on the table…Time for Plan B," said one of the officials.

European institutions, including the European Central Bank and the European Commission, and many national governments have had blueprints for a messy Greek default and potential exit from the eurozone since at least 2012. But these plans have never been discussed by all 19 ministers together. Senior ministers from national finance ministries briefly spoke about the need for a Plan B at a meeting earlier this month, but didn't enter into detail.

Much of what happens next depends on how the ECB reacts. Greek banks have been cushioning large deposit outflows in recent months with emergency loans from the Greek central bank. TELL 1.66 % But those loans can be stopped by the ECB's governing council, which includes central bankers from other eurozone countries, if there is concern that Greek lenders are no longer solvent.

Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis will travel to Frankfurt Saturday to meet the ECB's president, Mario Draghi, likely to plead for continued support for the Greek banking system. But several national central bank heads had come out against more emergency liquidity for Greek lenders before the referendum was announced.

ECB officials have in the past pointed out that Greece at the moment has no legal basis for capital controls and stopping citizens from accessing their money would require new legislation to be passed through Parliament in Athens.

Write to Gabriele Steinhauser at gabriele.steinhauser@wsj.com

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