Sunday, June 14, 2015

Economic outlook: Fed interest rate announcement keenly awaited – Financial Times

Inflation and interest rates are top of the agenda of this week's announcements.

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve announces its decision on US interest rates for June, and Swiss and Norwegian central banks give their decisions on Thursday followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday.

More

On this topic

IN Markets

UK and US inflation data for May are out on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

The debate as to when US interest rates will rise appears to be reaching a climax. Inflation hawks are warning of the dangers that a prolonged period of low interest rates could pose, while doves argue that wage growth and overall inflation need to be higher to justify a rate rise.

Consumer prices have fallen this year and that is pushing analysts to back the doves this time, so rates are expected to be held where they are.

Further insight into the monetary situation in the US will be available on Thursday with the release of inflation data for May. Energy prices have recovered from lows at the beginning of the year and rents have reportedly been rising. Consequently inflation in May is expected to be 0 per cent year on year, having been minus 0.2 per cent in April.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is running at 1.8 per cent year on year and is expected to have remained stable in May.

The Fed is also set to update its forecasts for gross domestic product growth in the near and longer term. A decline in first-quarter GDP is likely to lower the forecast for overall growth this year, but 2016, 2017 and the longer-term views are expected to remain unchanged.

Also on Thursday the Swiss National Bank is considered likely to keep rates on hold, despite inflation in May of minus 1.2 per cent year on year, with the hope that the negative rates imposed on deposits will have a greater effect as time goes on.

Analysts foresee rate cuts at this month's meeting of Norges Bank. The Norwegian central bank declared in March that rates would fall in the second quarter if the economy continued to underperform, as it has in recent manufacturing and investment data.

The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy stance on Friday as the economy continues to recover, albeit at a mild pace.

UK inflation data are due out on Tuesday. In April CPI inflation turned negative for the first time since the index began.

Food and petrol prices are at their highest since last December, and as a consequence inflation in May is expected to push back into positive territory. Analysts expect 0.1 per cent year-on-year growth.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2015. You may share using our article tools.
Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

LikeTweet

No comments:

Post a Comment