Wednesday, June 3, 2015

European Central Bank Holds Rates Steady – New York Times

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its main borrowing rate unchanged on Wednesday, but it was expected to emphasize its determination to stimulate the eurozone economy as long as necessary to raise the inflation rate from its dangerously low level.

The central bank left its benchmark rate at 0.05 percent on Wednesday, as expected. That is the rate at which commercial banks can borrow from the central bank, and it is typically used to steer market interest rates.

Having effectively run out of room to cut rates further, the European Central Bank has resorted to new methods to push down the cost of borrowing and to stimulate growth and inflation in the 19 countries in the eurozone. In March, the central bank began buying government bonds and other debt at a rate of 60 billion euros, or about $ 66 billion, a month, a form of money-printing intended to inject cash into the financial system.

At a news conference scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, was expected to express his resolve to continue the bond-buying program until inflation is on track to reach the official target of just below 2 percent. Mr. Draghi has previously said the central bank would keep buying the bonds until at least September 2016, and would continue longer if needed.

After falling for several months and remaining flat in April, inflation in the eurozone rose 0.3 percent in May from a year earlier, preliminary figures showed on Tuesday. That was more than expected but still well below the central bank's target.

Greece's debt talks were also expected to be a major topic of discussion at the European Central Bank on Wednesday. Mr. Draghi was among the European leaders who met in Berlin late Monday to work on what amounted to a "take it or leave it" offer to the Greek government.

Greece needs more money soon if it is to repay its creditors — the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank — billions of euros in loan obligations that will come due in the coming days and weeks. But Athens has balked at the conditions the creditors have imposed, like additional reductions in pensions and changes to regulations that make it hard for companies to lay off workers.

The European bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, appears to have helped make credit more available to businesses and consumers in countries like Italy and Spain, analysts say, a good sign for the prospects of economic growth.

"Financial conditions have continued to ease in the euro area," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday. "Notably, the pace picked up after the E.C.B. embarked on Q.E.," it said, referring to quantitative easing.

The availability of bank loans for small- and medium-size companies — the backbone of the eurozone economy — has begun to improve, according to a survey published on Tuesday by the European Central Bank. The improvement was the first recorded by the survey since 2009, the central bank said. Companies also said, however, that banks had become more rigorous in requiring collateral.

Surveys of business sentiment and other indicators have raised questions about whether a nascent economic recovery in the eurozone is already losing momentum. In addition to central bank stimulus, much of the impetus for growth has come from lower fuel prices, which leave consumers with more money to spend on other things. Those lower prices could prove temporary, however.

"Enthusiasm surrounding the eurozone recovery has been overtaken by new realism," Carsten Brzeski, chief economist for Germany and Austria at ING Bank, said in a note to clients on Monday.

Growth in the currency bloc most likely slowed in May, according to the final results of a survey of business sentiment published on Wednesday by the research organization Markit. However, the region's unemployment rate improved, dipping to 11.1 percent in April, the lowest rate in three years, according to official figures published Wednesday.

The central bank is scheduled to release new estimates for eurozone growth and inflation on Wednesday.

Even if the outlook is for the inflation rate to rise, Mr. Draghi is likely to emphasize that the central bank will not waver in providing economic stimulus to the eurozone until it is clear that the risk of deflation — a broad fall in prices considered toxic for growth — has passed.

In addition to helping improve the flow of credit, the bond-buying plan could also prove to be important in stabilizing financial markets if, as feared, Greece is unable to keep paying its government debt and is forced out of the eurozone.

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